by Mike Asti
It's that time of year once again. The snow goes away, the grass comes out, and most importantly spring is almost here (Phil did see his shadow!). All this hints to gearing up for the 2011 Major League Baseball season. Last year was the year of the pitcher. This was evident by the record number of no hitters, perfect games, even the first ever 28* out perfecto, and all the way through October, as a boring offense ended one of sports longest title droughts thanks the guys on the mound. With all that said, it is meaningless now. I will preview each division taking into account off-season changes and many other factors.
First, the only division the national media even gives a shit about, the American League East. In 2010 the Yanks and Red Sox continued to beat up on each other yet contend, the Rays stayed determined knowing it was the last run with the core, and the rest went as predicted (except no one saw the Bautista 54 home run campaign coming, don't lie). Since the dust settled a lot has changed. The Rays were pretty much gutted, they lost Crawford, Pena, Garza, and Soriano. The most important part, Crawford, left for Fenway and their All-Star closer, Soriano, joined the Evil Empire to sit and wait for Rivera to retire, he will set up the legend. Not only did the usual suspects make moves, Baltimore finally rejoined the party they left behind last century, they proved they are actually going to make an effort, Toronto..not so much.
With the new outlook of this always entertaining division, I see the hot stove creating some changes in the 2011 standings. Let's briefly go team by team....
Tampa Bay Rays
I will begin with last seasons division champs, the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa won the crown by only one game last year thanks to the head to head edge against the historic rival franchises of the north east. They lost most of their core, as stated above, and already seem to be missing the swag they acquired in 2008. The additions of Manny and Damon was mostly just to keep the few fans they have but actually could help on the field as well. I see Manny still having something left in the tank and even though he is a liability in the field and will have to split time at DH with his fellow "idiot", if healthy could create protection for Longoria. Damon still has been an on base machine the last few years, despite never reclaiming his power. At the press conference Manny poetically stated while looking at Damon "we will play 162, you play 100 and I'll play 62." While hilarious, if this is close to what happens this team will be in serious trouble. Pena can be replaced and the offense might actually be improved. Evan will hit (2nd best 3b in baseball), Manny can still rake, and Damon certainly helps, however, offense wont be enough with the star studded lineups in this division. Tampa lost its mojo mostly because they no longer have a premiere starter and the MLB save leader on the roster. Garza's absence will allow Price to live up to the hype, he's now THE ace. Despite having confidence in him, I have none in the rest and he will have to win the Cy Young for them to repeat as division winners. Don't even get me started on who will try to shut the door, the whole pen is full of set-up men. I see Tampa battling it out for third at best.
Key Subtractions Key Additions
Carlos Pena (Cubs) Manny Ramirez
Matt Garza (Cubs) Johnny Damon
Rafael Soriano (Yankees) Joel Peralta
Carl Crawford (Red Sox)
New York Yankees
Next, the team TB beat out, the New York Yankees. The new Boss may think this team was in celebration mood all last season after their 2009 title, I doubt that. However, the most note worthy portion of their off-season is not adding Soriano it is who decided to not take his talents to the Bronx. The sensation of the last few years, Cliff Lee, returned to Philadelphia, the team New York beat for that world title not to long ago. Lee rejected the Yankee dollars, pressure, and mystique to return to the place he felt most comfortable. This set an interesting tone for the post George era, you can count on one hand the super-star fee agents Mr. Steinbrenner failed to obtain. None the less, this team is still very strong. The Yanks are stacked once again in the lineup, Jeter is back and poised to return to pre-2010 form, A-Rod is in his best shape in years and has already stated he has been slumping for 3 seasons (he has averaged 30 hr, 100 rbi, & 100 runs over that time), and Cano has quickly become the best 2b in the game and perhaps the heart of the order. They now even have a guy who was once on a hall of fame pace on their bench (Andruw Jones), the AL's best 1b (Teixeira), and the ageless Posada can totally focus on hitting passing the back stop torch to Russell Martin. It is always murders row for the Bronx Bombers, the question will be the pitching staff. Since the inception of the franchise the Yanks have always had fabulous hitters but equally as dominant mound generals. Pettitte is gone and waiting to see if Cooperstown will ever call and Burnett is coming off a miserable season. Of course CC will perform but they will need more in order to take down their hated rival in Boston. With their lineup, CC, and the best set-up/closer combo we have seen in years, this team will contend for not only the division but beyond.
Key Subtractions Key Additions
Not landing Lee (Phillies) Keeping Jeter & Rivera
Andy Pettitte (Retired) Russell Martin
Rafael Soriano
Boston Red Sox
Last years order from top to bottom continues with Boston. Red Sox fans can hardly remember the 86 year long curse days at this point, Boston won the hot stove battle to say the least. Injuries hampered this team in 2010, this year they might even be able to dominate regardless. After bringing Crawford and Adrian Goncalez into the fold, Boston has created immense depth and talent. In recent memory, it seemed the Yankees always had a slight edge on offense, this year that might not be the case any longer. From top to bottom there is no break for opposing pitchers. Crawford is a speedster and one of the best top of the order guys of the last decade, Ellsbury gives them two lead off hitters, Pedroia, if healthy, is a fantasy stud, Gonzalez is made for Fenway and will punish the Green Monster, Youkilis is one of the most underrated players year after year and can finally focus on only one position with Adrian at first every day, and Drew is no slouch by any means. Along with the force, Boston has the arms as well. Lester, Lackey, Beckett, Dice-K, and Buchholz have the potential (hinging on Dice-K's health) to be the AL's big 4. Wakefield is one of best number 5's too. Papelbon is a lock 35+ saves, and the only 8th/9th combo who could argue the Yanks is Bobby Jenks and Paps. Like NY, Boston added a former All-Star closer with playoff experience (World Series experience) to bolster the back end. This team is my early World Series champion pick, enough said.
Key Subtractions Key Additions
Adrian Beltre (Rangers) Carl Crawford
Adrian Gonzalez
Bobby Jenks
Toronto Blue Jays
To the surprise of many, Toronto was an above .500 squad who actually garnered some national attention in 2010. They won 85 games but that still was only good enough for 4th place in this always tough division. The attention came from former utility man, Jose Bautista, blasting 50 home runs and 124 rbi (his previous career high was 16 & 63). Since then not much good has happened north of the border. The Jays were able to lock up Bautista to a big deal, praying he can at least come close to 10' again. Aside from that their off-season was rather dull. This is not the early 90's so no big name future hall of famers will be on the Blue Jay roster. Toronto has question marks all over the diamond. The offense does not provide much protection for Jose, his walk total could sky rocket. Despite some descent hitters such as Aaron Hill (every other year), the newly added Juan Rivera, and Rajai Davis making it a full on former Bucco party in Canada, there is not much pop in this lineup overall. The lineup is average at best but appears legendary compared to the pitchers. There is literally no one even close to an ace on the roster and Ricky Romero is quality but best suited as a number 3. Shaun Marcum and Brendan Morrow..eh. Dotel can get you saves, you may have a heart attack while watching them. Idealy he is a set-up guy and instead he is again starting the year as the closer on a struggling team with no support in sight.
Key Subtractions Key Additions
Vernon Wells (Angels) Juan Rivera
John Buck (Marlins) Rajai Davis
Lyle Overbay (Pirates) Octavio Dotel
Mike Jacobs (Rockies)
Baltimore Orioles
Like Toronto this team has not found anything close to the success it had in the 90's in the new century. However, this off-season Baltimore decided to put some effort forth. The Orioles made some headlines adding a few big boppers to their previously mediocre lineup. Slugger, yet also strike out machine, Mark Reynolds, changes leagues from Arizona to the Orioles and future hall of fame former AL MVP, Vladamir Guerrero embarks on another team in another one year deal. Guerrero got off to a hot start last year but faded at the end and even though he was a key cog on the AL Champion Texas Rangers there was not much interest from either Arlington or the rest of the baseball world. Reynolds is still young and can hit a home run in his sleep, he just needs to add some plate discipline to become elite. Those two join fellow new additions J.J. Hardy and Derek Lee, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Weiters, and Adam Jones to form a lineup that in any other division would be considered potent. Lee is on the decline but with this protection could have a comeback type season (former batting champ). A veteran laden team with tons of experience never hurts to try to turn things around. Only issue here, of course, the pitching. This lineup is enough to put Toronto deep in the basement, the pitching will prevent Baltimore from truly contending. Similar to the Jays, Baltimore has several number 3's and no ace. Guthrie has potential but will need more help. Kevin Gregg fell ass backwards into his second career 30+ save season and could do it again. This team responded to Buck when he took over (watch him rebuild yet not be able to see it through) and could very possibly finish third but no way do they get any higher.
Key Subtractions Key Additions
Julio Lugo (Free Agent) Derek Lee
Ty Wigginton (Rockies) Mark Reynolds
Garrett Atkins (Pirates) Vladamir Guerrero
J.J. Hardy
Kevin Gregg
AL East Prediction:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (Wild Card)
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Stay tuned for the rest. Your Pirates and the NL Central will be last.
No comments:
Post a Comment