NL Central Preview

By, Mike Asti

Continuing my MLB division break downs heading into the 2011 season, I now move over to the National League and will cover the Central. This division was owned by the Cardinals over the last decade thanks mostly to Pujols. Phat Albert put together literally the best first 10 years to start a career in baseball history (I could probably argue sports). That hot opening act to his earned St. Louis multiple division titles, 2 NL pennants, and even a World Series crown in 2006. Is the Cards strangle hold on this division coming to an end? Will they officially pass the torch to the incumbent winners in Cincinnati? Will the new look Brewers and Cubs compete ALL season long? Will Pittsburgh extend their unfortunate record? These are some of the many questions as we move towards opening day.

Cincinnati Reds


This franchise crawled back to glory last summer, reaching their first post-season since the last time a Red won an MVP (Larkin in 95). Almost all of the Reds crew will return for a chance to repeat, their only new addition is coming off of a World Series MVP. They can hit, they are athletic, they can pitch and they can defend, that is certainly a recipe for success. Renteria was shockingly not asked back to San Francisco, so his experience will move coasts. Edgar brings tons of veteran leadership and has a greater playoff resume by himself than the rest of the team has combined (3 World Series and 2 rings). Unlike the Giants, the Reds will not require him to perform as well on the field, his presence in the locker room is the underrated part of this acquisition. Votto already has an MVP on his belt and is primed for another great 162. He brings power, defense, the right side of .300 and a significant slot to the heart of the lineup at first base. Despite Votto continuing what will undoubtably be many more All-Star seasons, it will take more to win again. Jay Bruce will need to step up and do so for the entire year, Phillips will need to return to 07 through 09 form and provide that protection, Rolen will need to continue to perfect his craft in the twilight of his great career and the pitching staff will need to continue to improve as most of the young guns jump into their prime. Arroyo is still key here though, he might not be the "ace" anymore, but, his 15 wins is necessary. He basically has been and will need to keep being the Renteria of the mound leading by example. If Volquez, Cuetto and Bailey stay healthy and pitch like they should, with the excellent stuff they have up their sleeves, this team could easily obtain a quiet big 4 of their own and possibly even the second best staff in the NL. Cordero is a lock 35+ saves. If Chapman becomes what we all expect, Cincinnati may also be home to one of the best 8th/9th combos. I see no reason why the Reds do not contend all season long and may very well be the Giants of 2011, a dark horse World Series team.


Key Subtractions: Orlando Cabrera (Indians) Key Additions: Edgar Renteria



St. Louis Cardinals


We all know all about the Pujols contract saga that plagued the hot-stove season, this should not really have a barring on 2011. Albert is a pro and will continue his hall of fame career, in fact it may even help in the short term motivating him to do even better. In order for the Cards to return to their dominance and knock off the reigning Reds, they will need much more than Pujols. Holliday was brought in to be the Robin to Pujol's Batman, last season he started off slow, but, eventually became that guy. Molina, and Ryan Theriot, who was brought in at the deadline mid season, are big time assets on good teams. The hitting is weaker than the Reds (Berkman could give STL more pop) from top to bottom, yet still should be enough to keep them in the race. The only thing holding St. Louis back is replacing the loss of Adam Wainwright, he will miss the year due to Tommy John surgery. Wainwright has been a stud and has given the Cards two aces the last few campaigns. Now it will be up to Carpenter to return fully to his old Cy Young ways, a solid year might not be enough. Veteran Jake Westbrook and sophomore Jaime Garcia are the leading candidates to fill the number 2 void in the rotation. I would give it to Garcia, he has the stuff to do the job and is the future of the franchise in terms of pitching. Westbrook has been best when in a number 3 or 4 role and without pressure. If the starting staff comes together, this squad will be fine closing games out again. Ryan Franklin is another former Mariner taking off after leaving Seattle. Franklin may not dominant like say Rivera or Nathan, he just gets the job done. I see the Reds as the favorites, never count out the Pujols factor. Ironically enough, the Cards contending may mean another Pujols MVP and St. Louis forced to wave goodbye to their hero.


Key Subtractions: Adam Wainwright (Season ending injury) Key Additions: Lance Berkman





Milwaukee Brewers

The Brew Crew always seems close to getting over the hump. This off-season the Brewer brass showed their fans they are serious about trying to build a consistent winner. Zack Greinke brings an AL Cy Young award to the NL and immediately will fit in as the ace of the staff. He now has a team with offense around him and his win total should look more like 2009 than 2010. Milwaukee knows they have a chance every fifth day. However, Greinke is not enough by himself. The rest of the rotation is suspect and the Brewers find themselves in a similar situation as the Cards, looking to fill it out. Yavani Gallardo is a strikeout machine and will be the number 2. The issue is after him, Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf follow and are alright at best. Prince is playing for another contract and will bring his usual middle of the road average with tons of power. The rest of the diamond is better than meets the eye. Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks (if ever fully healthy), and Casey McGhee are all budding stars. Ryan Braun is the best overall player and could be a sleeper MVP guy. Bullpen wise, John Axford and Saito will end games with "the Ax man" taking lessons learned from Hoffman and getting the closer gig. I would not be surprised if this team is leading by June and even ends up as the runner up.

Key Subtractions: Trevor Hoffman (retired) Key Additions: Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Takashi Saito




Houston Astros

As the years go by things get worse for the NL's Texas team. The Astro's are 6 years removed from their first ever World Series trip and most key members of that era are long gone. Oswalt and Berkman are no longer walking through that door. This organization is in the midst of full on rebuild mode and will certainly go through some hiccups in 2011. The lineup still has Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence, that's basically it. This team may actually be one of the better clubs on the base pads this season, the best may actually be Pittsburgh. Brett Meyers and Wandy Rodriguez, two career middle of the rotation guys, will both move up one spot with Myers forced into the top. This just sounds all kinds of bad. In fact no one is in their proper role on the mound, Brandon Lyon, a career set-up man, will close with no 8th inning help in sight. Houston will be lucky to even fight for middle of the pack.

Key Subtractions: Matt Lindstrom (Rockies) Key Additions: Clint Barmes, Bill Hall, Ryan Rowland-Smith



Chicago Cubs

Wrigley will draw fans as always, so the on field product is almost meaningless, yet baseballs cursed franchise keeps trying. The Cubs will look much different this year than seasons of recent past. Derek Lee will be gone all year, he is now in Baltimore, and several new faces will spend their summer near the ivy. I have been back and forth on this, I don't hate the new look Cubs. Aramis Ramirez is one of the best guys at the hot corner when healthy and should bounce back. He will be joined in the heart of the lineup by slugger Carlos Lee. The Rays fire sale was the Cubs gain. Lee's average may improve in the NL and either way brings that threat of the three run bomb at any time. If Soriano (my NL's most overrated) can ever actually put together a solid season from April to October and return to his Yankee/Ranger/Nat's days, this team could have a nice blend of power and speed. Soto and Byrd are not bad secondary players either.

Pitching wins championship (the Cubs don't) Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells and Carlos Silva now have that top gun to join the crew. Matt Garza came with Lee on the Ray's plane and may be more important. Garza was in the David Price shadow in Tampa, he will now have the stage all to himself. I think he has it in him to be an ace and even though Dempster will start the year as the number 1, don't be surprised if Garza ends up there by seasons end. He is coming off back to back 200+ inning years and has proved he can handle a tough work load. Carlos Marmol may be the best closer in the NL right now and will have Wood back for his second Cub tenure as insurance. Chicago will be fun to watch and a team to keep an eye on. The curse will most likely continue.

Key Subtractions: Xavier Nady (Diamondbacks) Key Additions: Carlos Lee, Matt Garza, Kerry Wood


Pittsburgh Pirates

Last and certainly not least (eh maybe), the Pirates have FINALLY stopped the run of veteran stop gaps and low priced rentals. Pittsburgh will send out an opening day lineup covered with young talent and hope. Garret Jones, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen are studs in the making. Normally this would mean their days in the Steel City are numbered. Call me a lunatic, I actually believe in this core sticking around. I do feel trading one for a top pitching prospect would not be a bad idea, but, the organization is committed to keeping everyone. McCutchen was rated as the top CF in the National League by the MLB Network recently, this seems crazy at first, but, think about it..I dare you to name a better overall player who brings pure speed, youth and can also hit. He stabilizes the top of the order while Jones and Alvarez will hold together the middle. Jones started off his career feast or famine, strike out or long ball. After some seasoning, Garret has become a well rounded hitter and still has that 35 home run potential. Alvarez is the key and is poised for a big season.

Everything I've heard from Bradenton this spring has been good. Phrases like "ready to explode", "future super-star", "the next Aramis Ramirez" and "can do it all" have been uttered by many prominent members of the Pittsburgh media. It is not absurd to say this guy could be blasting 30, knocking in 100, and hitting .300 year after year soon enough. Tabata may be the best young catcher in the game not named Buster Posey. I already compared Alvarez to Aramis, Walker could be seen as a Placido Polanco type. Like Polanco, Pinerichland's (a Pit suburb) own put up 126 hits in only 426 at bats a year ago, he could be a future 200 hit man in all actuality. Walker has the knack for getting the bat on the ball and tends to make a great deal of contact, that is a sign of a good hitter for sure. He doesn't waste time swinging at bad pitches anymore and can be a web gem waiting to happen at either second or third.



The only issue, as I brought up with my trade plan, is the pitching. Pittsburgh has arguably the best core of youth in the lineup and on the field, but, needs to find a way to stop the other guy. Paul Maholm and Ross Olendorf will be relied on for a quality start just about every appearance. That will be a lot of pressure on two guys that have still yet to fully prove themselves. Malholm is the true hope, as the veteran of the staff, coming off of a 5+ ERA season, he will have pressure to turn it around. Brad Lincoln and Scott Olsen are in the 4 and 5 spots. Lincoln has the least experience, he may have the most talent. After Hurdle sits on pins and needles through the first 6 innings (ideally) he will be left with options such as Jeff Kartsens, Chris Resop and Evan Meeks before handing it over to Joel Hanrahan. Kartsens flirted with 20 starts the last couple of years, he will mostly find a role in the bullpen in 2011. Resop came from Atlanta and did well as a middle reliever in Pittsburgh with about double a K to BB ratio and even 5 holds.

 The Pirates will hope they can get anything close to that production out of Charlie Morton as well. The set up man will be Meeks and this job is perfect for him. He has the best stuff of the pen by far and in 70 games in 2010 posted a stellar 2.14 ERA. The ball will get to the 9th, the question is what will Hanrahan do with it? This may be the biggest question mark at this point. A National's product was sent to be the closer of the future and now it is his time. Octavio Dotel was brought in to mentor and get saves until the deadline last off-season, this year it is put up or shut up.

I really want to say this team will end the drought, I actually would not be shell shocked with everything I already said. Will 18 consecutive seasons under .500 become 19? That is what everyone really wants to know. I truly think they will get close and it may become a story. Unfortunately I see this team still a year or so away and as a hint I do not think the historic feat will go to 20. It's just way to much to ask a group of kids to turn 57 wins into 81 that easily. For a positive..the last two dug outs Clint Hurdle has called home have eventually captured a pennant.



Key Subtractions: Zach Duke (Diamondbacks), Andy LaRoche (Athletic's), Lastings Milledge (White sox) Key Additions: Lyle Overbay, Garret Atkins (reunited with Hurdle from Rockie days)


NL Central Prediction:


1. Cincinnati Reds



2. St. Louis Cardinals



3. Chicago Cubs



4. Milwaukee Brewers



5. Pittsburgh Pirates



6. Houston Astros


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