Friday, June 28, 2013

For Pirates' Huntington, Thoughts of Deadline Plunder Should Be Thrown Overboard

The strong sentiment with MLB’s trading deadline just over a month away is that the Pittsburgh Pirates need to make a trade to shore up right field or first base and add some power to the lineup. Othwerise, an unthinkable collapse and a 21st losing season in a row might follow.
But do they need to make a move?
Giancarlo Stanton is the prize of the trade market if the Miami Marlins are willing to let him go. The Pirates certainly have the loot to make a deal happen with young players like Jameson Taillon, Gregory Blanco, and Alen Hanson working their way through the minors.
But trading for Stanton is the kind of move Dave Littlefield would make. For all Stanton’s talent—which is a lot—that deal smacks of failure. Stanton has hamstring issues that are a bit concerning. It’s a small sample size, but then again his whole career is at this point.
Is he worth two or three of the top prospects in the Pittsburgh system? Including Taillon in particular in any deal is a bad idea. The Pirates haven’t had two ace-level talents in their system since before baseball was invented. Breaking up Taillon and Gerrit Cole with the impending retirement or departure of guys like A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez is a bad idea.
The Pirates need great pitching more than they need great hitting. If the San Francisco Giants have taught us anything in the last few years it is that power doesn’t win championships. Power pitchers and smart defenders do.
Plus, who says this offense is that bad? I know the rankings aren’t pretty and indicate that a lot of luck is flowing up the three rivers lately. Pedro Alvarez is showing signs of figuring things out, however. His numbers are trending steadily upward. Perhaps he’s either a slow starter like Adam Laroche or a late bloomer who is finally learning that you don’t have to hit it out every time you’re at the plate.
Andrew McCutchen will eventually settle into a .290-.320 hitter with 20-30 home run power. He’s already done those things once. He’s showing signs of being able to replicate it again. Once Alvarez improves to the point that teams have to respect McCutchen, it will get awful fun in the middle of the batting order.
Tony Sanchez looks like he could be a legitimate hitting threat too. The best move would be to keep him on the roster for the remainder of the season behind Russell Martin and pack up the Fort McKenry show for good. There’s also upside left in Travis Snider, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, and Alex Presley. Don’t forget about Jordy Mercer. He’s finally rescued the shortstop position from the dastardly forces of oblivion and Clint Barmes.
Oh yeah, there’s also Starling Marte. For a speedster he’s sure got some power in his bat. If he can be an average hitter that has some power too, he will ignite this lineup.
There are a ton of veteran leadership guys out there who can or could hit and who could provide some short-term help in the lineup. Paul Konerko, Nate Schierholtz, Alexei Ramirez, and others can be had for a lot less than it’ll take to pry Stanton away from the home run sculpture in Miami.
But this team has a ton of veteran leadership in Martin, McCutchen, Burnett, Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez, Brandon Inge, and Jason Grilli. They have a bunch of budding leaders in Alvarez, Walker, Jeff Locke and Gerrit Cole too. I don’t buy the whole “acquiring leadership” argument when the clubhouse chemistry is this good.
On the pitching side, there’s no need to acquire help. Burnett and Rodriguez will be back soon. Cole, Locke and Jeanmar Gomez can round out the rotation. Charlie Morton, Brandon Cumpton, and Taillon are in the wings if needed.
The bullpen could use something of the “just-in-case” variety as Grilli and setup guys Mark Melancon and Justin Wilson have thrown a ton of innings already. The Pirates could try to buy low on Carlos Marmol and let Ray Searage turn him into the latest successful reclamation project or find some other spare parts that other teams aren’t going to need down the stretch.
But acquiring some fringe help for the bullpen is just about all the Pirates should be thinking when it comes to being buyers.
The Pirates need to play just better than .400 baseball to finish with a winning record. They’ve played .616 baseball so far. Nothing in any set of numbers indicates a dropoff that significant coming.
With that in mind, now is no time to mortgage the future. Neal Huntington has done well staying the course when the seas got rough over the years. Now it’s time to do so again. Going wild just because he can will only cause leaks to spring where none exist.
For a team trying to end two decades of futility and become a consistent pennant contender, a mistake now could ruin everything.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

This is Next Year: Why 2013 is the Time to Believe in the Pirates

Back when the Dodgers were in Brooklyn (and the Pirates weren’t awful for two decades at a time), Brooklynites lived by the mantra of “wait ‘til next year” for their baseball team. The Dodgers didn’t win a World Series until 1955 despite some great teams in the late 1940s and early 1950s and despite some other, more limited successes earlier in the century.
For Pittsburghers, rooting for the Pirates since 1992 has been fraught with peril and disappointment. Never has a fan base embodied that old Dodgers mantra of waiting until next year.
After 20 years of waiting, hoping, and dreaming, of tying their hopes to the likes of Chad Hermansen, Kris Benson, Tike Redman, Chris Stynes, Reggie Sanders, and Andy LaRoche, and of trying to believe in guys like Dave Littlefield and Cam Bonifay, those fans might have a reason to believe.
2013 is the year that the hated streak will end.
“Why now?” you ask?
For one, this is the most talent that has been accumulated in Pittsburgh at the same time since, well, 1992.
Gone are the days of relying on retread fringe pitchers like Jeff D’Amico or fizzled prospects like Bryan Bullington. The pitching staff is anchored by veterans A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and Francisco Liriano with youngsters Jeff Locke and Gerrit Cole breaking the glass ceiling as we speak.
Unlike previous years, there’s plenty of help waiting in the wings too. James McDonald, Charlie Morton, Jeanmar Gomez and eventually Jeff Karstens all bring experience and past successes to the table and will be ready if their number is called.
Neal Huntington is MacGyver when it comes to creating bullpens. With the pitching equivalent of tape and paper clips, he has built one of the best groups in the majors.
Lead by closer Jason Grilli and setup man Mark Melancon—both recent reclamation projects, the bullpen has made it nearly impossible for teams to come back after trailing when Pittsburgh’s starters exit.
On the hitting and defense side of the ball, the future has never looked quite so bright. Years of solid drafting and careful—though not always common sensical—development has yielded Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte, Neil Walker, and Jordy Mercer.
Smart free agent dealing has brought Russell Martin while good trades and waiver wire attention have netted Garrett Jones, Travis Snider, Gaby Sanchez and Michael McKenry.
Plenty of help is available here if needed to thanks to Jose Tabata and Alex Presley among others. Former first-round pick Tony Sanchez isn’t far away either.
All of this combines to give the Pirates a team and a future close to what baseball fans in black and gold have dreamed of for two decades.
This is a team that can win and that can sustain itself in a small market.
Huntington loosely followed the Tampa Bay model of drafting and development combined with savvy acquisitions to build this team.
This isn’t always going to be a smooth ride. Pedro Alvarez will probably never hit .300 or even .280, but he he could slug 30-40 home runs each year. The offense may not always support the pitching and vice versa, but they get the job done almost every day.
These aren’t your older brother’s Pirates anymore.
Sure there are two consecutive collapses in the second half that are still looming in the rear view mirror. They won’t go away unless this indeed is the year. But that’s no reason to doubt this team’s ability.
Last year, the Pirates were winning games with statistics that were more anomaly than reality. They were incredibly lucky in some categories and incredibly snake-bit in others. This year, things look more realistic and the performances are matching up to the statistics.
These Pirates have also weathered storms that would have sunk the team during either of the last two years. Injuries to Rodriguez, Karstens Gomez and others (along with the disaster that was Jonathan Sanchez) have altered the rotation continuously. All through it, the next man has stepped up in a fashion that would make Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin proud.
The offense has cycled through success and utter failure as players like Marte, McCutchen, and Walker have gone from boom to bust to boom. They’ve survived complete outages from Alvarez, Martin, and shortstop Clint Barmes.
They’ve survived the umpires making unreal calls. They’ve survived the best teams and the worst ones in the league.
All through it, they’ve been remarkably level-headed and steady with their play and unmatched in their effort and heart. The leadership is everywhere and comes from everyone. This is a team of winners.
So you better believe, Pittsburgh. Because if you don’t now, you won’t really get a chance to enjoy it when 20 years of waiting, hoping, tears, and frustration comes to an end this fall.
Oh, and if you’re looking for one more reason to believe in THIS year more than the others:
There’s no way that the Pirates would ever allow the number 21 to be associated with anything but brilliance, excellence, and victory.
I think that the Great One would be proud of this team. They won’t let him—or us—down this time.