Robbing Dallas on a Neal Deal

Eleven games into the 2011-2012 season and it looks like Ray Shero pulled one over on Dallas last February 21^st. Shero sent defenseman Alex Goligoski to the Stars in exchange for forward James Neal and defenseman Matt Niskanen. Neal and Niski had a rough start in Pittsburgh, while Goose seemed to flourish with his new team.

Neal didn’t play poorly last season. For a guy who is 6’2” and about 200 lbs, Neal has superior skating ability. He forechecks well and scores goals from seemingly impossible angles, working the boards and burying the puck with his wicked wrist shot. Last season his problem when he came to the Pens was simply finding the back of the net.

Niskanen has also worked his way into the lineup as a top four defenseman for the Pens. After a few inconsistent seasons with Dallas and some serious mismanagement from his coaches and trainers, Niski seems to have found a system that works for him. He blocked 4 shots in the game against the Isles on Tuesday night.

Right now, the question of keeping Neal for additional seasons is on people’s minds. In the past week, General Manager Ray Shero has stated that negotiations for a contract extension have not begun and will not commence in the near future. Neal confirmed in an interview with Puck Daddy that he doesn’t anticipate any contract talks until after the season. This has some people in a panic, but let’s think logically.

This will be Neal’s first full season with the Pens. He has scored 8 goals and 1 assist in the first 11 games of the regular season, opening the season with a goal in the first minutes of the game against Vancouver on October 6^th. He is on pace to score 60 goals, however this is pretty unlikely.

It’s only October. There is a lot to consider before Neal can negotiate a contract. Let’s look at some plausible scenarios that will affect his value:

1. Neal scores 30 goals this season.

2. Neal somehow contends for the Rocket Richard Trophy playing alongside Sid and Geno this season when they are back to full health.

3. The Pens are favored in circles that Jeremy Roenick doesn’t roll with to win the Stanley Cup this year. Pens win. Neal now has a ring. Cha-ching. 

4. Neal has an unbelievable point streak in the playoffs, Pens win the Cup, Neal wins Conn Smythe. (Don’t throw rocks at me. I know you all say Sid, Geno or Flower, but just consider it.)

Neal has been a 20 goal scorer the past 3 seasons and would like to step up to a 30 goal scorer this year. Thirty goals will command more money. Neal is signed on for $2,875,000 this season. The Pens have $229,760 left in the cap. Shero always keeps it real close.

Next summer, Steve Sullivan, Arron Asham, Steve MacIntire, Richard Park, and Brent Johnson will all be unrestricted free agents. Niski and Neal will be restricted and can go to arbitration if negotiations aren’t going favorably. Shero promises that if he wants a player he will find a way to make it work. He’s going to have to. If Neal has a commanding season, he is going to want a commanding salary, especially if he played for a Cup winning team.

Also, Jordan Staal will enter free agency the following year. Staal already hits the cap for $4 million. With the amount of money that teams had to clamor to spend this past summer just to hit the cap floor, the price of a player like Staal went up. We saw the price of someone like Tyler Kennedy go up to. Neal falls somewhere between Staal and Kennedy ability wise (though much closer to Staalsy). $3.5 million wouldn’t be a totally outlandish number for Neal if the stars align in his favor this season.

Sulley is signed for $1.5M for just this year, Big Mac for $600K and Park for $550K. Push comes to shove, they may not return, especially with so much talent developing in Wilkes-Barre that may be ready to come fill the holes. Also consider that Marc Letestu and Ben Lovejoy (in my opinion at least) may be looking at becoming trade bait before the season is over. 

Time will tell, but expecting some sort of resolution or talks now is simply unreasonable.

Pens play the Islanders at home tomorrow. James Neal didn’t score last night on the island though, so he may be gone before the trade deadline anyway. He sucks. Trade him. Fire Shero.

Let’s Go Pens.

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Twitter: @Letangueray
email: snwats58@gmail.com